2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook and Forecast

Category 4 Hurricane Laura approaches the Louisiana Coast, August 2020. Laura tied the record with Hurricane Ida in 2021 and the Last Island Hurricane in 1856 as the strongest hurricane to make landfall on the United States. NOAA Satellite Imagery.

Posted February 15, 2023 | News & Updates | Tropical Cyclone
2023 Hurricane Season | Hurricane Preparedness | Hurricane Season | Forecast
by MJ Logan

This is an early outlook for the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season which starts on June 1, 2023 and runs through November 30, 2023. The six-month long season reaches a peak in September. The start, end, and peak season dates are based on historical data.

Stay informed on the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season storms

2023 Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

The dust cloud over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean (gray area—lower right to upper left) is clearly visible in this satellite image from the NOAA in the summer of 2020. Dust from the Sarhara is an annual event, but the extensive size and area it covered dampened tropical development for more than a month. In spite of the dust cloud, the 2020 hurricane season turned  hyperactive with 31 tropical cyclones, 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes—the most active season on record.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation appears ready to swing toward the El Nino phase. Over the summer, the chance of a shift to El Nio has increased to 60 percent, according to the NOAA. The south-eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperatures affect Atlantic Ocean tropical weather systems. El Nino conditions are warmer ocean temperatures while La Nina indicates cooler ocean temperatures near the equator west of the Americas.

This is not the first time that NOAA has predicted a shift toward El Nino. Following the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, forecasters predicted a shift in 2021 and in 2022. ENSO remained in a cool La Nina state which promotes more hurricanes in the Atlantic.

The area in blue indicates the lower surface sea temperatures associated with the La Nina phase of the eastern Pacific Ocean. La Nina affects weather systems in North America and the Atlantic Ocean and aids tropcial cyclone formation.

Since the 1990s, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has stayed in a warm phase. Warmer ocean waters help storm development. The oscillation between cool and warm takes place over a twenty to forty years. The temperature difference is slight—less than one degree between extremes. It affects the entire Atlantic Basin north of the equator and possibly parts of the Pacific Ocean as well.

Ocean temperatures typically reach a peak around September-October, coinciding with peak tropical cyclone activity. They reach a low around March and April.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or AMO is a long ocean temperature that affects tropical cyclone development. The current state is a warm phase. Using tree rings and ice cores, the AMO has swung less than 1 degree over the past 1000 years and probably longer—long before modern man began affecting climate.

With two of the better-known factors for determining the hurricane season outlook in opposition, the season intensity is an educated guess. The outlook presented by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) in December indicates a below-average to average season.

If the El Nino Southern Oscillation remains in a cooler, La Nina phase (40 percent chance), we could have a more active season.

Hurricane Season Records and Outlook

¹ As of December 6, 2022.

Fort Meyers, Florida.  Storm surge waters reach the eaves on a house and other houses and buildings in the background.

Hurricane Preparedness Resources