Tropical Storm Nicole strengthens as it moves toward Florida. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings in effect. Storm Surge Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings accompany the Tropical Cyclone. NOAA/NHC Graphic November 9, 2022.

 

Hurricane Possible as Storm Strengthens Ahead of Landfall

Update November 10, 2022:

Shortly after this news item published, the National Hurricane Center upgrades Nicole to a Hurricane. Nicole made landfall about 3:00 AM Eastern Standard Time on November 10, 2022 with sustained winds of 75 MPH.

Tropical Storm Force winds extended up to 345 miles from the center, and 12-foot waves up to 700 miles from the center. The storm surge reached 3.6 feet above high tide at Jacksonville. Waves as high as 33 feet were recorded off Cape Canaveral.

Pounding waves accompanied the storm surge, eroding beaches and causing home to fall into the ocean.

319,000 utility customers were without power or an estimated 700,000 to 900,000 people.

Nicole lost strength after landfall as expected and is currently a tropical storm over the western Florida penninsula. It should accelerate north to Georgia late tonight.

Tropical Storm Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for both Florida coasts.

– End Update –

With just three weeks left in the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Tropical Storm Nicole brings the season’s total to 14 named storms. At 1:00 PM Eastern on November 9, sustained winds were 70 MPH, just 5 MPH Short of a hurricane. With the storm over warm ocean water, forecasters at the NHC expect some additional strengthening. Nicole could be a hurricane when it makes landfall on the Florida Coast late tonight or early tomorrow. Nicole will be the third Atlantic cyclone to strike Florida this year.

Early season forecasts and outlooks set the number of named storms from 19 to 20 for the season. With Nicole, the forecast falls short by 5-6 storms. Wind shear and atmospheric dust from the Sahara Desert prevented formation for part of the summer.

Forecasters don’t expect Nicole to strengthen beyond category 1. It should make landfall with 75 MPH winds, according to the latest discussion at the National Hurricane Center. However, Nicole is a large storm with a north-to-south breadth greater than the length of Florida.

The forecast track shows Nicole will turn north after making landfall and track through northern Florida and central to northeast Georgia as a tropical storm, weakening to a depression and transitioning to post tropical as it crosses the Carolinas and into Virginia when it dissipates within a frontal system.

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Tropical Storm Nicole Key Messages

 

Tropical Storm Nicole over the Bahamas. GOES East Satellite Imagery by NOAA/NHC November 9, 2022

A hurricane warning is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas and the east coast of the Florida Peninsula north of West Palm Beach, and a hurricane watch from West Palm south to Pembroke pines. Storm Surge warnings are in effect for the Bahamas and Florida Atlantic Coast.

Tropical Storm Conditions have arrived along the Florida east coast within the hurricane warning area. These conditions will spread to the Florida Gulf Coast by this evening or overnight.

Forecasters expect a dangerous storm within the storm surge warning area along the east coast, west coast, and Big Bend coast. The surge could reach 3 to 6 feet above high tide. Large and damaging waves will accompany the surge. Storm surge and flooding account for more deaths and damage than all other hurricane hazards combined.

Residents within the hurricane warning area should heed the advice and directions given by local authorities.

The National Hurricane Center warns Florida Residents not to focus on the storm track. The storm will affect most of the state with tropical storm conditions and hurricane conditions within the warning area, including areas north of the forecast cone and much of the southeastern East Coast.

Nicole brings heavy rains through Thursday throughout the Florida Peninsula. Flash flooding and urban flooding are possible. Additional flooding is likely on Friday for the southeast and into Appalachia, including the Blue Ridge Mountains and extending North through West Central Pennsylvania and Western New York.

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