This Coronal Mass Ejection on August 31, 2012 traveled at 900 miles per second. At this speed, the storm would reach earth in about 29 hours. The Earth is included only for scale and is not as close to the sun as pictured here. NASA image
Solar Flares and CMEs Disrupt Electrical Transmission & Communications
The current 11-year solar cycle is reaching peak activity with sunspots, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections. Since the 1700s, we have counted and documented these cycles.
In mid-March 1989, a geomagnetic storm struck the earth’s northern hemisphere, causing a 9-hour power outage in Quebec. The geomagnetic storm resulted from the two coronal mass ejections on March 10, and 12. Just before those CMEs, a large solar flare occurred. The geomagnetic storm hit the earth on March 13 with intense auroras at both poles seen as far south as Florida.
The storm affected satellite communications and short wave transmissions. Satellites in polar orbits lost control. On the Space Shuttle Discovery, a sensor malfunctioned, indicating dangerously high pressure in a hydrogen tank.
A mass of charged particles flowed through the ionosphere from east to west, inducing powerful electric currents in the ground.
During another storm in August 1989, trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange halted when three redundant disk drives failed at the same time.
Can Hackers Take Down the Power Grid?
Various governments and other groups, some within the United States, launch sophisticated continuous attacks on the U.S. National Power Grid
The earth’s magnetosphere deflects most of the solar wind around the earth, but also guides a small portion directly to the earth’s poles. Without the magnetosphere, the solar wind would strip away earth’s atmosphere. NASA Artist’s Rendition.
What Causes a Solar Flare Power Outage
The solar wind is a stream of charged particles from the corona, the outermost layer of the sun’s atmosphere. It is primarily electrons, protons, and alpha particles, but has some elements as heavy as iron. The solar wind carries almost 2-million tons of particles away from the sun every second.
Earth’s magnetic field shields us from the worst of our sun’s solar wind. As it reaches the magnetosphere, the magnetic field forces most of the radiation to go around the earth. However, a smaller portion passes between the magnetic lines of force which funnel it directly to the north and south poles. When it reaches the ionosphere (30-600 miles above the earth), it puts on a spectacular light show commonly known as the Aurora Borealis or Northern Lights in the Arctic, and Aurora Australis or Southern Lights in the Antarctic.
When a strong geomagnetic storm reaches the ionosphere, the charged particles flow around the earth. Charged particles that flow around a conductor induce an electrical current within the conductor. Because the earth has an iron core and a conductive crust, the flow of charged particles induces electrical currents. Usually, the earth doesn’t care about the currents and neither do the people. Under most circumstances, it does not affect us.
The 1859 Carrington Event interfered with telegraph operations. In a memorable conversation between Portland, Maine and Boston, Massachusetts, the two telegraph operators disconnected their batteries and operated on electricity induced by the Aurora.
The “Seahorse” Solar Flare of 1972 was one of a series of solar storms in August, 1972. The intense storms caused the accidental detonation of naval mines near Haiphong, North Vietnam, and were the fastest ever recorded. NASA image.
A Solar Blackout
Quebec’s long distance transmission line sits on a layer of rock. The rock doesn’t conduct electricity very well, unlike other areas of the earth’s crust. When the March 1989 solar storm hit, the river of charged particles in the ionosphere induced powerful currents along the earth’s crust. Conveniently, Quebec Hydropower’s high-voltage transmission line provided a low resistance path for the currents.
The surge of power took down Quebec’s grid in less than 90 seconds by tripping breakers. As long as the currents flowed, the breakers could not reset.
It was a lesson in the vulnerability of our long-distance transmission networks.
Transformers are an important component of electrical grids everywhere. Using the properties of induction, they raise and lower voltage for specific portions of the grid. At power plants, transformers raise the voltage for long distance transmission at relatively low current. Lower current allows relatively smaller diameter cables. When it reaches distribution points, transformers lower the voltage for local distribution. More transformers at the point of use (for example, the transformer on the pole that feeds your house) lower the voltage even further.
Like most electrical devices, transformers have limits. Exceed those limits and bad things happen—transformers can explode or burn. High currents can damage other grid components as well.
Large transformers for long distance transmission, or in substations that serve large populations, are not stock items. Most are special order and can take a year or more to build. They cost millions of dollars each.
The possibility exists that, without protection, the electric grid is vulnerable to large solar storms that could damage large portions of the grid in ways that could conceivably take years to fix.
Lights of North America, Central America, and Caribbean Islands as sunlight hits the far right edge of the globe. NASA Image
Solar Storm Power Outage
Concern that a solar storm might cause widespread outages and damage is valid and documented. As we approach peak solar activity in 2025, solar storms may increase in frequency and intensity. An event of similar intensity to the Carrington Event will damage more than our power grid.
In the USA, a Carrington Level event could cause up to 2.6 trillion dollars in damage.
Disrupted satellite communications would have far-reaching effects. GPS systems will no longer work, which affects navigation and public safety. Important weather forecasting systems rely on satellite networks, like the GOES satellites operated by the NOAA.
Imagine not knowing that a hurricane would reach the coast in two days.
What if we could no longer talk to International Space Station residents. And if those communications were down, what about the electronic systems keeping them alive?
That kind of event would take down the internet. How many businesses and people rely on it for everyday use?
Forget cell phone or landline communications. Will your local grocery store be able to restock the shelves if they can’t place orders?
Damatic Satellite Image by NASA of the Power Outages Left in the Wake of Hurricane Helene, September 24, 2024.
Carrington Event—Is the Worst Yet to Come?
In 1859, the year of the Carrington Event, the world had just started finding electricity a useful convenience and an occasional necessity. Today, we rely on it extensively for everyday life. It heats our homes, powers the internet and other forms of communication. It enables accurate navigation and positioning for transportation. If the Carrington Event happened today, it would certainly cause widespread damage throughout the world. Strong evidence exists that Miyake Events—a sudden increase in radioactive Carbon 14—have origins in particularly strong solar storms. The last, twice as strong as the Carrington Event was in 774 AD. Another in 660 BC, and other notable events before those. Historical data suggests Miyake level events occur every 400-2400 years. Recently, scientists discovered evidence of a Miyake Event that occurred 14,300 years ago. Estimates make it 10 times stronger than the Carrington Event.
Will a 2025 Solar Storm Take Down the Power Grid?
Strong solar storms like the one that caused the Carrington Event are relatively rare. The 1989 storm that caused Quebec’s blackout was not as powerful as the one in 1859, but it was strong enough to disrupt power transmission for almost half a day.
No one can be sure when the next powerful storm will occur. It’s unlikely to happen in 2025, but could take place anytime in the next 200 to 2200 years. When it does, if we have not prepared and have safeguarded our power grids, communications networks, and satellites, we can expect significant damage that will disrupt life as we know it.
What can you do?
- Urge your legislature to fund grid improvements, including measures to harden against solar storms. Currently, infrastructure improvements for national and local transmission networks face shortfalls measured in billions of dollars. Unfortunately, no one wants to commit the money until the grid goes down.
- Prepare for blackouts and outages with a backup source of power. Solar storms like the one 1989 are not so rare as the one in 1859. We can mitigate the effects of long blackouts affecting the grid with our own backup power.
- Don’t worry. Only a rare and extremely powerful storm could severely damage the grid and our communication systems. It’s not likely to happen in our lifetime. Far more likely are widespread outages lasting hours or days, which we can prepare for with backup power.
We know so much about the sun and how it allows life on earth, but don’t know everything about the dangers it poses. Presently, there is no way to predict dangerous solar storms like the Carrington Event or Miyaki events. At best, we can prepare for the worst and remember that life on our little blue planet is fragile.
