2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook and Forecast

Major Hurricane Lee approximately 400 miles north of Puerto Rico on September 11, 2023, one day after the historical season peak. Lee’s track has become more certain and will likey hit the New England coast or Novia Scotia. NOAA Satellite Imagery.

Posted February 15, 2023 | News & Updates | Tropical Cyclone
2023 Hurricane Season | Hurricane Preparedness | Hurricane Season | Forecast
Updated September 11, 2023
by MJ Logan

Before and After Hurricane Ian-Images of the Fort Myers Pier, Fort Myers, Florida. September, 2022.

2023 Hurricane Season Peak Update and Forecast

Where Will Hurricane Lee Hit?

At the historical peak of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the Atlantic basin had already produced 14 storms, more than the original estimates prior to the season. So far, the seaon has generated nine tropical storms and five hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.

Hurricane Lee

Category 3 Hurricane Lee is headed for the Northeast and will impact the coast between Rhode Island and Novia Scotia. After rapid intesification to a category five storm with sustained winds of 155 MPH, Lee gave up some of its strength as it passed through an environment of dry air. Lee will likely lose more strength over the next week ahead of landfall

Dangerous Rip Currents and Heavy Surf are expected along the East Coast, Caribbean, and Bermuda throughout the week.

Hurricane Margot

Hurricane Margot is over the central Atlantic and is unlikely to threaten land. Margo is a Category 1 storm on northward track that won’t take it anywhere near land over the next seven days. Presently with 75 MPH sustained winds, Margot will strengthen over the next few days to Category 2 with 100 MPH winds.

Behind and to the south of Margo, another system has a 70 percent chance of development. The long term forecast for this storm is unknown, but the NHC will likely name it “Vince” once it reaches tropical storm strength.

NHC 7-Day Tropical Weather Outlook for the Atlantic Basin

In January, a system initially dismissed as unlikely to organize was reassessed in May by the National Hurricane Center. The Sub-tropical storm did not receive a name because it was not recognized until Mid-May. It brought snow to New England and 68 MPH gusts to Novia Scotia. A sub-tropical storm has both tropical and extra-tropical characteristics—it takes energy from the ocean and stable temperature gradients in the atomosphere.

–End Season Peak Update

This is an early outlook for the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season which starts on June 1, 2023 and runs through November 30, 2023. The six-month long season reaches a peak in September. The start, end, and peak season dates are based on historical data.

Stay informed on the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season storms

Before and After Hurricane Ian Neighborhood Homes 

According to CSU, the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season was near average with a slightly lower ACE than average.

The most significant storm was Hurricane Ian which devastaged the Fort Meyers area and flood large areas of the state. Analysis indicates that Ian was a Category 5 storm before it made landfall as a Category 4 storm.

Colorado State University Tropical Weather and Climate Research issued a slightly lower than average activity forecast in the Atlantic Basin. The shift of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from La Niña to Neutral set expectations for a lower than average forecast. Now forecaster are looking at the possibility that the Neutral ENSO state may shift to a weak El Niño late this summer or fall.

“Larger-than-normal uncertainty exists with this outlook. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.” ~CSU

As stated previously, ENSO is just one factor that affects the number of cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. Warmer than usual sea surface temperatures could allow for a busy Atlantic Hurricane Season if strong El Niño does not develop.

If you live along the coast, prepare for hurricanes and tropical storms. The season is just 1 1/2 months away.

/Update

The Storm Surge Swept Inland with Surprising Speed in Naples, Florida. Note the fast-moving water and the depth as the water rises around buildings. In the second photo, a home is almost completely submerged by storm surge flooding.

2023 Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

The dust cloud over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean (gray area—lower right to upper left) is clearly visible in this satellite image from the NOAA in the summer of 2020. Dust from the Sarhara is an annual event, but the extensive size and area it covered dampened tropical development for more than a month. In spite of the dust cloud, the 2020 hurricane season turned  hyperactive with 31 tropical cyclones, 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes—the most active season on record.

The El Nino Southern Oscillation appears ready to swing toward the El Nino phase. Over the summer, the chance of a shift to El Nio has increased to 60 percent, according to the NOAA. The south-eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperatures affect Atlantic Ocean tropical weather systems. El Nino conditions are warmer ocean temperatures while La Nina indicates cooler ocean temperatures near the equator west of the Americas.

This is not the first time that NOAA has predicted a shift toward El Nino. Following the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, forecasters predicted a shift in 2021 and in 2022. ENSO remained in a cool La Nina state which promotes more hurricanes in the Atlantic.

The area in blue indicates the lower surface sea temperatures associated with the La Nina phase of the eastern Pacific Ocean. La Nina affects weather systems in North America and the Atlantic Ocean and aids tropcial cyclone formation.

Since the 1990s, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation has stayed in a warm phase. Warmer ocean waters help storm development. The oscillation between cool and warm takes place over a twenty to forty years. The temperature difference is slight—less than one degree between extremes. It affects the entire Atlantic Basin north of the equator and possibly parts of the Pacific Ocean as well.

Ocean temperatures typically reach a peak around September-October, coinciding with peak tropical cyclone activity. They reach a low around March and April.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or AMO is a long ocean temperature that affects tropical cyclone development. The current state is a warm phase. Using tree rings and ice cores, the AMO has swung less than 1 degree over the past 1000 years and probably longer—long before modern man began affecting climate.

With two of the better-known factors for determining the hurricane season outlook in opposition, the season intensity is an educated guess. The outlook presented by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) in December indicates a below-average to average season.

If the El Nino Southern Oscillation remains in a cooler, La Nina phase (40 percent chance), we could have a more active season.

Hurricane Season Records and Outlook

¹ As of December 6, 2022.

Fort Meyers, Florida.  Storm surge waters reach the eaves on a house and other houses and buildings in the background.

Hurricane Preparedness Resources