Hurricane Helene nears landfall at Florida’s Big Bend on Septemer 27, 2024. NOAA satellite image.
Updated March 13, 2025
Although we are a little more than 7 weeks from the season start on June 1, and 22 weeks from the hurricane season peak of September 10, now is the time to start preparations. Hurricane Preparedness How To
Today (April 10) the Climate Prediction Center issued its Final La Niña Advisory. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of several weather patterns that influence the Atlantic Hurricane Season. In March 2025, ENSO Neutral conditions returned as eastern Pacific equatorial sea temperatures moderated from as much as 1.5 degrees below average to just 0.2 degrees below average.
ENSO region, divided into 4 primary sub-regions, follows the equator through the eastern Pacific Ocean from about 75° West to 150° East and 5° North and South of the equator.
La Niña promotes tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic Basin, while El Niño inhibits Atlantic tropical cyclones. For the period of August-September-October, ENSO-Neutral conditions are likely (greater than 50% chance) to persist. A shift back toward La Nina rises toward the end of the year while a shift toward El Nino remains below 20 percent.
Weather forecasters and climatologists warn that long-range hurricane season forecasts change as the season approaches, and can change even more dramatically once the season is under way.
Storms |
April
|
March
|
Average Year |
| Named Storms | 17 | 15 | 14.4 |
| Hurricanes | 9 | 7 | 7.2 |
| Major Hurricanes | 4 | 3 | 3.2 |
Watch for the next forecast update in mid June.
— End Update
March 10, 2025: It’s important to remember that long-range forecasting has a very wide margin for error. Meteorologists can’t look at a weather map and determine what it will look like in six to nine months. Computer models take known data points and extrapolate would could happen with a given range of possibilities.
The 2020 hurricane season is an excellent example of the potential for error in long-range hurricane season forecasting. In 2020, early forecasts predicted an average or below average season with about 12 named storms. The forecast did not change much in April, but on June 5, Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Department issued an update that included 16 named storms, just a little above average. 2020’s record breaking season ended with 31 tropical cyclones and 30 named storms—more than double the early season forecasts. 2020 saw 14 hurricanes, double the average, and eleven of the hurricanes made landfall on the contiguous United States.
Long-range tropical cyclone forecasts rely on multiple factors including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the likelihood of a La Niña or El Niño (ENSO), and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), among other factors. The current La Niña (cooler ocean water) conditions for the ENSO region in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean typically promote higher Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. However, La Niña is not as strong as some years, and may shift to Neutral sometime this spring or summer. According the NOAA, the atmospheric conditions associated with the weaker than usual La Niña are stronger than expected which could contribute to more activity. The current AMO index is 0.2 above the average while tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures are near normal.
Remember—It only takes one hurricane or tropical storm to make landfall near you to turn your season into an active season. Regardless of long-range forecasts, prepare for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
The very early forecast from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued in December of 2024 points toward slightly above average activity for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Keep in mind that the Hurricane Season runs for six months from June 1 through November 30. At this point in time (the first week of March) the season start is still 3 months away and 9 months until the season end. A forecast of any kind this far in advance has a wide margin of error due to large uncertainties.
The upcoming season forecast by Colorado State University will shed more light on the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
March ENSO Update from Climate Prediction Center
Ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have global weather impacts and directly influence the atomospheric conditions the region. The El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, has three states.
- La Niña- Sea temperatures at least 0.5 degrees C below average.
- Neutral—Sea temperatures within the range of 0.5 degrees lower or higher than average.
- El Niño—Sea Temperatures at least 0.5 degrees C above average.
The weak La Niña in the equatorial Parific Ocean may be shifting toward ENSO Neutral. While the sea temperatures have risen slightly, the atmospheric conditions are still indicative of a La Niña.
The weak La Niña may be coming to an end. This NOAA CPC Graph shows a high chance for La Niña shifting to Neutral in the next three months, and therafter declining until an equal chance for Neutral or La Niña at the end of the year. The ENSO cycle shifts between La Niña, Neutral, and El Niño on an irregular cycle that frequently favors Neutral or La Niña, as seen in this graph. NOAA Climate Prediction Center Graphic, March 13, 2025.
Damage Following Hurricane Helene Asheville North Carolina. Photo by Bill McMannis.
The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Uncertainty and long-range hurricane season forecasts go hand-in-hand. At the beginning of March, we know the outlook will change the closer we get to the start of the hurricane season on June 1. Remember that tropical cyclones can form at any time of year, in any month, and impact the United States and other countries. The 2025 outlook compares closely with an average year, but that outlook will change in the coming weeks and months.
Storms |
2025 Outlook |
Average Year |
| Named Storms | 15 | 14.4 |
| Hurricanes | 7 | 7.2 |
| Major Hurricanes | 3 | 3.2 |
Any hurricane season, regardless of the projected activity, could bring a disaster anywhere along the East Coast or Gulf Coast.
Hurricane Preparedness Steps to Take Now
- Hurricane Prep takes planning and time. Don’t wait. Start now.
- Understand Hurricane Risks Posed by Water & Wind
- Hurricane Pre-Season Prep
- Understand Hurricane Forecasts & Where to Get Them.
- Know What to Do When a Storm Threatens
- Stay Protected During Storms. Prepare Your Safe Place.
- Be Careful After Storms. Many Hazards Remain.
Devasation in Buncombe County, North Carolina following Hurricane Helene in September, 2024.
Photo by North Carolina Department of Transportation
Hurricane Season Preparedness Resources
A road turns into raging river during Hurricane Helene on September 27, 2024.
Photo by North Carolina Department of Transportation
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Names
- Andrea
- Barry
- Chantal
- Dexter
- Erin
- Fernand
- Gabrielle
- Humberto
- Imelda
- Jerry
- Karen
- Lorenzo
- Melissa
- Nestor
- Olga
- Pablo
- Rebekah
- Sebastien
- Tanya
- Van
- Wendy
Prior to the record-setting 2020 hurricane season, after using all the names on the list for that year, additional names were chosen from the Greek Alphabet. The only two years the NHC employed Greek letter naming convention were 2005 and 2020.
After the 2020 season, an auxiliary list of storm names provides additional storm names for years with more than 21 names.
The 2020 season broke many records. There were 31 tropical cyclones, of which 30 became named storms, 14 became hurricanes, and 7 strengthened into major hurricanes.
