Category 4 Hurricane Harvey at peak intensity about to make landfall on the Texas Coast. Harvey was responsible for 100 fatalities and caused 125 billion dollars in damage, tying Katrina as the most costly hurricane on record. It was the first major hurricane to make landfall in years. NOAA Satellite Image.

 June 10 Hurricane Season Forecast Update

Colorado State University updated its 2026 hurricane season forecast by lowering expectations for tropical cyclone activity and a major hurricane landfall on the United States East and Gulf Coasts. According to Philip Klotzbach, CSU meteorologist, the primary reasoning behind the forecast shift was the likelihood of El Niño formation, and strengthening to moderate or strong by season peak, around September 10. The National Weather Service confirmed the formation of El Niño on June 11, with a high probability for a moderate to strong index by the August-September-October time period.

Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science develops and issues hurricane season forecasts ahead of the season and as the season progresses toward peak. The next forecast comes on July 8, followed by the last season forecast on August 5. In November, the CSU team issues a summary of the season along with verification of the forecast.

CSU is a world leader in hurricane research and forecasting using methods developed by William M. Gray, Professor Emeritus. CSU continually improves techniques for predicting tropical cyclone activity with cutting edge research and tools.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the western tropical Atlantic are near average, but below average in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. El Niño will drive increasing vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, inhibiting tropical cyclone formation.

Along with lowering the season intensity, CSU also forecasts a below-average probability for a major hurricane landfall along the United States coastline and Caribbean.

Hurricane Preparednes—Know Your Risks of Water & Wind

Hurricane Idalia at category 4 shortly before landfall in August, 2023.

It Only Takes One Hurricane

Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Thorough preparations should be made for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

Hurricane Preparedness Graphic Prepare Before Hurricane Season: Supplies for a disaster kit placed on a table as the kit is assembled. Already present are a lantern, batteries, can opener, canned food, NOAA NWS Weather Radio, bottled water, and a checklist on a clipboard with a pencil. Bullet Point Items: Evacuation plan, Assemble supplies, Insurance checkup, Communication plan, Strengthen home. credit NOAA NWS5-Steps to Prep for A Hurricane

Hurricane Preparedness—7 Step Checklist

 

The CSU June 10 Hurricane Season Forecast

Forecast for June 10 Forecast April 9 Forecast *30-Year Average (1991-2020)
Named Storms 11 13 14.4
Hurricanes 5 6 7.2
Major Hurricanes 2 2 3.2
Major Hurricane Landfall on Coastal USA 24% Chance 32% Chance 43% Chance
Major Hurricane Landfall on East Coast 11% Chance 15% Chance 21% Chance
Major Hurricane Landfall on Gulf Coast 14% Chance 20% Chance 27% Chance
Major Hurricane Tracking Through Caribbean 26% Chance 35% Chance 47% Chance

*The 30-Year Average is updated every 10 years to reflect the preceding decades. Next update will be in 2030, for 2001-2030.

CSU builds its June hurricane season forecast on a method using analog predictors, four statistical models, and 40 years of past data. For the first time, the 2026 season forecast utilizes output from a new AI Climate Emulator, a machine learning-based atmospheric model.

CSU forecast skill increases as the season progresses toward peak.

Every year, Norwall echos the reminder that it only takes one hurricane to turn your season into an active season. It takes years to recover from a hurricane disaster. Hurricane Sandy devastated parts of the East Coast in 2012. 5 years later, some communities and residents were still rebuilding. Remembering Hurricane Sandy—5 Years After the Superstorm

Standby Generators Operate Automatically—Even in a Hurricane