Hurricane Helene about to make landfall on Florida’s Big Bend region. Helen wrought destruction from the Florida Coast all the way to the Carolinas and beyond. NOAA Satellite Photo.

2026 Hurricane Season Forecast and Outlook

Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project issued its first forecast of 2026 on April 9. CSU researchers are predicting a slightly below average season in their initial, preseason forecast. They cite the forecast of a robust El Niño as a primary factor contributing to a lower than average number of named storms.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a cyclic pattern of sea surface temperatures along the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and the corresponding effects on atmospheric conditions. ENSO shifts on an irregular cycle between El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña. Warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) characterize El Niño while cooler SSTs form a La Niña.

El Niño inhibits tropical cyclone formation by adding wind shear to the Atlantic Basin.

The CSU project, founded by Professor Emeritus Dr. William Gray, and now headed by Philip Klotzbach, provides one of the most widely publicized annual tropical cyclone forecasts.

When CSU issued the April 9 forecast, ENSO was in a weak La Nina condition, with a forecast for a shift to La Niña. The NOAA has since ended the La Niña watch. ENSO is currently in a neutral state expected to last through the summer before shifting to El Niño for the remainder of the year. Computer modeling indicates that by the end of the year, ENSO SSTs could be up to 1.25 degrees warmer than average.

Hurricane Season

If ENSO Neutral produces an average season, the first three months of the 2026 season could be close to average compared to the last thirty years. At the end of April, SSTs are within the average range, meaning less than 0.5 degrees variance from average. By August, the water temperature could rise more than 0.5 degrees above average and continue to rise through the season peak around September 10 and through the end of the year.

In 2025, no hurricanes and only one tropical storm made landfall on the United States—a rare occurrance. Even with a lower than average hurricane season, it is likely that the USA will experience at least one or more landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms.

It only takes one hurricane to make your season, an active season. ~Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project.

How Many Hurricanes in 2026

 

Average Season

2026 Forecast
Named Storms 14.4 13
Hurricanes 7.2 6
Major Hurricanes 3.2 2

Long-range hurricane forecasts are likely to change as the season progresses. Early forecasts for the 2020 season were for an average or slightly above average season. Even the later forecasts as the season neared its peak were off by more than 10 storms. Instead of 13 as predicted before the season start, the 2020 season produced 31 named storms, more than any other season in history.

The CSU forecast leans heavily on the ENSO forecast, which also has a margin for error. Short term forecasts of three months are fairly accurate, but longer ranges lose accuracy. In addition, spring ENSO forecasts have a well-known limitation—”The Spring Predictabilty Barrier”. The August-September-October season shows a high probability for a weak (27%)  to moderate (36%) El Niño, which should damped tropical cyclone formation the closer we get to the season peak.

2026 Hurricane Season Planning and Preparation

It only takes one hurricane to turn a below average season into a disaster for you and your family. With 6 hurricanes, two of them major hurricanes, and 7 tropical storms, there a good chance that a hurricane will impact people along the coast.

Follow these Steps to Prep before hurricane season arrives.