2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season February Outlook

6-Month Season Starts June 1 Peaks September 10 Ends November 30

Factors Influencing Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

El Niño / La Niña (ENSO) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Sea Surface Temps (SSTs)

Warm El Niño

Brings Pacific Jet Stream

Causing Cyclone Inhibiting Wind Shear Over Atlantic

Cool La Niña

Brings Polar Jet Stream

Reduces Atlantic Wind Shear  Promotes Cyclone Formation

Turns North Over Coast

Warm El Niño

Cool La Niña

The strong El Niño that reduced activity in 2023 is fading. NOAA points to a 55% chance that La Niña returns by hurricane season peak

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Currently in a Warm cycle that should persist throughout 2024. Deviations are common, which causes uncertainty.

Warm cycles promote Tropical Cyclone activity

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Warm Ocean Water Provides the Energy Required to Form a Tropical Cyclone. The Key Areas Where Tropical Cyclones Form is 1-2° C. Warmer than Average

Current Outlook Predicts an

Active 2024 Hurricane Season

Named Storms

Hurricanes

Major Hurricanes

24

11

5-6

14

7

3

2024

Average